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Britain's Muslim population to triple by 2050, new projections show

01 Декабря 2017

The Pew Research Center report, published on Thursday, modelled three scenarios for estimating the number of Muslims who will be living in Europe by 2050.

Even with the most immigration, Muslims would "still be considerably smaller than the populations of both Christians and people with no religion in Europe", the researchers concluded.

In the "high migration" scenario, the study projects that the record flow of migrants who came to Europe between 2015 and 2016 would continue indefinitely, resulting in 75 million Muslims in Europe, a 14 percent increase, by the middle of the century.

Europe's Muslim population to grow strongly PARIS: Muslims could make up over 11 percent of Europe's population in the coming decades, compared with just under 5 percent now, if legal migration levels are maintained, a report by a US-based think tank said on Thursday. As a proportion of the continent's overall population, that represents an increase from around five percent to a figure ranging from 7.5 percent to 14 percent. This means that, even if migration were to stop completely, the group's population share would rise by more than 3 percent in the United Kingdom, as well as in France, Italy, and Belgium.

The research released on Wednesday night was based on three model scenarios, projecting what would happen if migration stopped altogether; if "regular" migration continued but refugee flows stopped; and if both migration continued and the current record levels of refugees continued.

Attempting to soothe readers, Pew stresses that the refugee flows of recent years are extraordinarily high compared with the historical average, and that these have begun to decline amid changes in the migration policy of many European countries.

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Under a zero-migration scenario, the Muslim population of Europe would rise from the current level of 4.9 percent to 7.4 percent (35.8 million) by the year 2050. It projects that the proportion of Muslims in Europe could almost triple to 14 percent by 2050 - still considerably smaller than other groups.

PARIS: Muslims could make up over 11 percent of Europe's population in the coming decades, compared with just under 5 percent now, if legal migration levels are maintained, a report by a US-based think tank said on Thursday. The 30 countries it covered include the 28 European Union members, plus Norway and Switzerland.

The research centre sets out three different projections for the coming decades, according to varying estimates of future migration levels. The report also highlighted the role of migration in stemming population decline in Europe. Germany - the country that has taken in the highest number of migrants since 2015 - could be made up of anywhere between 9 percent and 20 percent Muslims by 2050.

Under the "high migration" scenario, the Swiss Muslim population would increase to 1,500,000 (12.9%) in 2050.

Several countries have reported an alarming decline in birth rates. On the other hand, high migration sees predictions of some 76 million Muslims dwelling in Europe by 2050. The number of Muslim migrants arriving in Europe surged after 2014 to nearly a half-million annually, largely the result of people fleeing conflicts in Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan.

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Britain's Muslim population to triple by 2050, new projections show