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Tropical depression forms; will head for Gulf of Mexico

05 October 2017

The system formed in the Caribbean Wednesday and "is expected to become Tropical Storm Nate later today or tonight", according to the National Hurricane Center.

At least a minimal hurricane is likely to be moving northward through the Gulf of Mexico this weekend.

Nicaragua residents can expect to see 15-20 inches of rain, with isolated regions receiving up to 30 inches. NOAA's final in-season season forecast on August 9 called for 14-19 named storms, while the Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State University called for 16 named storms and eight hurricanes in their final in-season prediction on August 4.

According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami, regardless of development, this system will likely produce heavy rains over portions of Central America during the next few days.

The US Air Force Reserve is scheduled to fly into this system Wednesday afternoon to gather more information. The hurricane center track takes the storm's center across the Panhandle, however, forecasts so soon in advance can have errors amounting to hundreds of miles.

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If Tropical Depression 16 gains strength, it will be known as Tropical Storm Nate.

"I don't think it is going to head toward us, but we are continuing to monitor it". Both European and American model groups show the depression reaching the southern Gulf of Mexico Friday but then they diverge.

Stay with 11Alive and 11Alive.com for the latest on this developing tropical weather system.

Ensemble-based track probabilities for 90L over the next ten days from the ECMWF model (left) and GFS model (right). Just understand tropical storm conditions are possible for some spots by Saturday night and Sunday.

Invest 90L is now located in the western Caribbean Sea and is expected to track northward through the week and heading into the weekend.

Tropical depression forms; will head for Gulf of Mexico