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OPEC compliance with production cuts at lowest in six months, IEA says

14 July 2017

OPEC said that they expect the USA to bring in the biggest non-OPEC supply gain next year, even though inflation rate and a cut in well output may limit shale oil activity. The rally hasn't put oil anywhere near the $60-mark that many had predicted it would be on its way to by now, but it does show that investors may believe the 11-month lows the market hit at $42.53 in June are about the bottom, said John Saucer, vice president of research and analysis at Mobius Risk Group in Houston.

The French oil and gas company Total reported that it had signed an agreement with Qatar Petroleum and received a 30 percent share in the concession of the Al-Shaheen offshore oil field for 25 years, starting July 14, 2017. The gain was led by Nigeria and Libya.

Libya and Nigeria, which were spared from supply cuts because they are recovering from conflict, also opened the taps.

"Hopefully, in the next two to three months we can see how predictable the production return has been and then can say we feel stabilized and need to make the corresponding cuts", Kachikwu told reporters.

In its closely watched monthly oil market report, the IEA said it now expects global demand to rise by 1.5% this year to 98 million barrels a day, driven in part by rising consumption in Germany and the US during the second quarter.

This comes as the agency, famous for underestimating demand, raised it and now predicts that global demand will increase by a historically strong 1.5% this year to 98 million barrels a day. "Further growth of 1.4 mb/d is foreseen for 2018, with global demand reaching 99.4 mb/d".

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OPEC members are having trouble keeping their promises.

U.S. crude production has been growing steadily, topping more than 9 million barrels a day in February, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. USA shale production continues to rise; inventories remain elevated; and the markets are concerned that the OPEC cuts are not doing enough to drain the surplus. Without a further extension of the OPEC agreement, EIA would expect larger inventory builds and lower prices in 2018 than are included in this forecast.

Given Russia's cooperation and the support of non-OPEC producers, Mr. Kachikwu said, the dialogue must be sustained to maintain the price level, which has remained stable in the last one year.

EIA forecasts total USA crude oil production to average 9.3 million b/d in 2017, up 0.5 million b/d from 2016. Canada and Brazil are likely to boost production as well.

The number of rigs in operation has more than doubled from May 2016. As of 2016, the USA average daily export rate was just 520,000 bpd, although in May, the average daily was 1.02 million barrels. We would continue to monitor the level of compliance with the deal.

OPEC compliance with production cuts at lowest in six months, IEA says